C14.1.1. Sales Forecasting. (Arms Export Control Act (AECA), Section 25(a)(2))

C14.1.1.1. Sales Forecast Report. Each year, DSCA (Strategy Directorate) prepares an estimate of the total amount of sales expected to be made to foreign nations from the United States. The Director, DSCA, approves the Sales Forecast. These estimates are published in the annual Congressional Budget Justification for Foreign Operations (CBJFO) for the upcoming fiscal year and the next fiscal year, and they include all highly probable (which DSCA defines as 90% likelihood) sales of weapon systems or weapons-related defense equipment, services, or training.

C14.1.1.2. DSCA Sales Forecasting Process. Beginning in April of each year, DSCA (Strategy Directorate) solicits inputs from the Security Cooperation Organizations (SCO), Geographical Combatant Commands (GCCs), and Military Departments (MILDEPs) for the projected sales for each country for the following fiscal year. SCOs prepare the country report and submit it to the GCC and DSCA (Strategy Directorate). GCCs and MILDEPs provide aggregate reports to DSCA (Strategy Directorate). DSCA (Strategy Directorate) consolidates and analyzes the inputs and prepares and coordinates the Sales Forecast Report.

C14.1.2. The Javits Report (AECA, Section 25(a)(1)).

C14.1.2.1. By the first of February each year, the DoS prepares an annual report to Congress (the Javits Report) regarding arms sales proposals which includes all FMS and Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) of major weapons or weapons-related defense equipment for $7,000,000 or more, or of any other weapons or weapons-related defense equipment for $25,000,000 or more, which are considered eligible for Congressional notification and approval. The Javits Report brings to Congress’s attention proposed arms sales (that meet the above-delineated dollar value thresholds) that are to take place during the calendar year in which it receives the report. Thus, the 2012 Javits Report, for example, should contain information on sales expected to take place in 2012. The DoS is not required to include any sale already notified to Congress; however, it will include any potential sales reported on a previous Javits submission that has not been notified to Congress if they still meet the reporting criteria.

C14.1.2.2. Sales Portion of the Javits Report. The DSCA (Programs Directorate) provides the DoS the FMS portion of the Javits report by extracting the relevant data from the Sales Forecast. Individual country input is unclassified unless the country has requested classification, see Chapter 4.

C14.1.2.3. Excess Defense Articles (EDA). The AECA, Section 25(a), also requires an annual report to Congress listing the types and quantities of Significant Military Equipment (SME) that are anticipated to become available for transfer as EDA during the next 12 months. The DSCA (Programs Directorate) requests this data from the MILDEPs and includes it in the Javits Report submission to the DoS.

Table C14.T1. DSCA FMS Forecast Report/Javits Report Submission Timeline